Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q4

In one line: French GDP went nowhere in H2 last year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor GDP data support a dovish shift; Spanish CPI not so much

Advance GDP data show the EZ economy barely budged last year.
Spanish inflation rose in January; we see no reason to alter our French and German calls in response...
...But we are revising up our EZ inflation forecast by 0.1pp to 2.4%.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply, EZ, December 2023

In one line: Fall in M1 is fading.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, January 2024

In one line: Perking up, but is it enough?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, February 2024

In one line: Rebound in inflation and higher taxes hit confidence.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, January

In one line: More dovish than we expected.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, January

In one line: More dovish than we expected.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Pointing to downside risks to our rebound call.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, January

In one line: Mirroring the weak PMI.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMI, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line: The recovery is still on, just.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Advance PMI, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Where is the recovery?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Advance PMI, France, January 2024

In one line: Will the rebound be delayed?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMI, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line: The recovery is still on, just.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMI, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Where is the recovery?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMI, France, January 2024

In one line: Will the rebound be delayed?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor PMIs support our view that GDP will rebound in Q1, marginally

ECB hawks will pounce on signs from the PMI of continued upward price pressures in services...
...But the PMIs continue to suggest the EZ economy remains in a rut & manufacturing costs are sliding.
January’s inflation read will be more decisive for the timing of the ECB’s first rate cut; March is our call.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB BLS supports the case for easing sooner rather than later

Lending standards were tightened again in Q4, albeit less than in Q3; banks blamed risk perception.
Demand for loans again fell across the board, partly reflecting the continued rise in interest rates.
ECB doves can use the BLS to argue that financial conditions can ease, but will they?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone