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7th Oct 2025 10:32USDaily Monitor
  • AI capex—net of tech imports—lifted H1 GDP growth by an annualized rate of around 0.3pp.   
  • The boost to spending due to the wealth effect from surging tech stocks likely has been similar.
  • That suggests to us that weaker growth is more likely than a recession if the AI boom turns to bust. 

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Keywords for: 9 October 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence