US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Samuel TombsUS
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Samuel TombsUS
- Small banks have run down their Treasury holdings since 2023, especially long bonds.
- The biggest risk for small banks is further tariff escalation, which would hit CRE valuations and lift yields.
- A tariff-driven bounce in business investment in Q1 will give way to a slump in Q2 and Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
- April’s S&P Global PMI points to GDP growth of 1½% in Q2; the regional Fed surveys are only a bit weaker.
- Tariffs are lifting manufacturers’ costs, but service sector disinflation is ongoing; the Fed can ease soon.
- Post-tariff uncertainty and the upturn in mortgage rates will add to the headwinds facing housing.
Samuel TombsUS
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets pulled back expectations for Fed easing, after the recovery in the composite PMI in March...
- ...But the survey also signalled declining margins in manufacturing, and lower services inflation.
- New home sales likely revived in February after adverse weather, but renewed weakness lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…
- …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE
Samuel TombsUS
