Pantheon Macroeconomics

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7th May 2024 17:51USDaily Monitor

  • We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
  • Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
  • Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.

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