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3rd Nov 2025 18:16USDaily Monitor
  • The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
  • The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS. 
  • The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.

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Keywords for: 5 November 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence