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29th Oct 2025 10:06USDaily Monitor
  • We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
  • Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
  • The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.

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Keywords for: 31 October 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence