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25th Jun 2025 09:22USDaily Monitor

  • We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
  • ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
  • 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.

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Keywords for: 27 June 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence