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  • Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
  • AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
  • A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.

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Keywords for: 25 March 2026 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence