PM Datanote: US International Trade, November 2025

Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, January 2026

Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.

January 20256- US Economic Chartbook

THE ECONOMY IS UNLIKELY TO ACCELERATE IN H1...

• ...PAYROLLS WILL STAY SLUGGISH; HOUSEHOLD SAVING RISE

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, October/November 2025

Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, December

Probably a blip.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, October 2025

Strong but suspicious.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, December 2025

Increasingly untrustworthy.

15 January 2026 US Monitor Consumers' spending probably slowed significantly in Q4

• Consumers’ spending probably slowed in Q4, despite November’s respectable rise in retail sales.
• We look for spending growth of 1½-to-2%, far weaker than the 3.5% leap in Q3.
• The latest PPI data show retailers are continuing to shield consumers from tariff-driven cost increases. 

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, January 2026

Overstating the gloom, but a downbeat message nonetheless.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, September/October 2025

Signs of stabilization, but big headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, December 2025

Still an unreliable guide to services spending.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Still struggling for momentum.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, December 2025

Yet more grim news on the labor market.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, October/November 2025

Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 2025 / Durable Goods Orders, October 2025

Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.

23 December 2025 US Monitor GDP growth likely to slow sharply from Q3's robust pace

• We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending. 
• AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
• But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.

December 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE PAUSE IN THE FED’S EASING CYCLE WILL BE BRIEF...

• ...THE LABOR MARKET WILL REMAIN WEAK, INFLATION FALL

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, November 2025

Limited further upside for sales.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, December 2025

The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, October 2025

October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.