23 March 2026 US Monitor Markets are overlooking the labor market damage of the oil shock
19th Mar 2026 11:49USWeekly Monitor
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
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