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  • We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending. 
  • AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
  • But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.

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Keywords for: 23 December 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence