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19th May 2025 08:30USDaily Monitor

  • The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening. 
  • But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
  • Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.

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Keywords for: 20 May 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence