18 March 2026 US Monitor How would the Fed react if oil prices soar to $150?
16th Mar 2026 17:47USDaily Monitor
- We think headline CPI inflation would soar to 6% if oil prices hit $150, with core PCE inflation rising to 31/2%.
- The jump implies a hit to GDP of just over 1pp, probably lifting the unemployment rate to about 5%.
- We think the Fed would wait until next spring to deliver the 75bp easing we expect this year in our base case.
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