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12th Jun 2025 18:16USWeekly Monitor

  • We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
  • Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
  • Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.

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Keywords for: 16 June 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence