15 May 2025 US Monitor How high will inflation rise in plausible scenarios for tariffs?
13th May 2025 19:22USDaily Monitor
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
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