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10th Feb 2026 18:59USDaily Monitor
  • Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
  • Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
  • We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.

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Keywords for: 12 February 2026 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence