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30th Jul 2025 10:48USDaily Monitor

  • The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
  • Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
  • We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.

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Keywords for: 1 August 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence