Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Economic Monitor orders

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

27 Apr 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

25 Mar 2021 Rejigged Fed Data Show People's Cash Balances Still Huge, and Rising

Rejigged Fed Data Show People's Cash Balances Still Huge, and Rising

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Mar 2021 00:20U.S.

8 Jan 2021 December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jan 2021 00:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 22:20U.S.

15 Dec 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but not in a Straight Line

The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

20 Nov 2020 Covid Case Growth is Slowing, but Thanksgiving will Trigger a Spike

The rate of increase of confirmed new U.S. Covid cases per day is slowing, quite quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

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