Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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20 Jan 2022 The First Look at January Payrolls is not for the Faint-Hearted

  • The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
  • The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
  • Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Dec 2021 Rates Set to Rise in May, but the Fed can Sit Out the Summer

  • The Fed likely will want to take out further insurance, beyond faster tapering, against upside inflation risk.
  • Restoring 2% inflation requires supply chains to ease, wage gains to slow, and productivity growth to rise.
  • Individually, these are all much better than 50/50 shots but the Fed needs them all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Orders/Claims/Trade, October

  • In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2021 Covid Cases have Flattened, but the Decline Likely will soon Resume

  • The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
  • Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
  • New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Oct 2021 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but are they an Inflation Threat

  • Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
  • ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
  • The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders & Advance Goods Trade, September 2021

  • In one line: Core capex orders still rising strongly; trade hit by the lagged effect of lower summer oil prices

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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