Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
- The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
- Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
- The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
- Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
- Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
- The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.
- The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
- ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
- Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales
- The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
- Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
- Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.
- The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
- …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
- Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.
- Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
- Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
- Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.
- The decline in jobless claims tells us gross layoffs are falling, but it says nothing about the pace of hiring.
- Firms hit by the Delta wave are more likely to cut back recruitment first, before laying off staff.
- The Philly Fed suggests that supply-chain shortages are no longer intensifying.
The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.
The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.
People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.