Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

housing market

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2021 Delta Squeezed Payrolls in September, Again

  • September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
  • Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
  • Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2021 Consumers are Awash with Cash, so why has Credit Growth Rebounded

  • Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
  • ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
  • Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2021 Auto Sales Dragged Down Q3 Consumption; Smaller Hit in Q4

  • The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
  • Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
  • New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Sept 2021 A Government Shutdown Thursday Likely will be Averted, Just

  • We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
  • Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
  • Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Sept 2021 Why are FOMC Members so Split on Rates in 2023 and 2024

  • The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
  • Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
  • New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August 2021

  • In one line: Boosted by a rebound in multi-family in the Northeast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

  • Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
  • A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
  • Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

  • Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
  • Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
  • It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking, Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

  • The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
  • Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
  • The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Sept 2021 Payroll Gains Likely Losing Momentum, Thanks to Delta

  • A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
  • September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
  • Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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