Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.
Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.
New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.
Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today—we look for a 3.0% increase, close to the 2.8% consensus—but we also expect a further robust increase in the core too.
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only questions are when, and at what pace.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.
Why should we care about inflation expectations? After all, we don't care much about what people think about other aspects of the economy, because they tend to respond to events which have already happened, like prior movements in stock prices, gas prices, elections, and interest rates.
A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."
In one line: Layoffs plummeting; Covid noise in productivity and costs obscuring the trends.
The Fed cares so much about wages because the rate of growth of unit labor costs is the single best leading indicator of core CPI inflation.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.S. Document Vault,