Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

homebuilders

20 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed this Month, but it's Still Strong

Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.

Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.

Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 June 2022 New Home Sales Data are Wild, but the Collapsing Trend is Clear

New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.

Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.

The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2022 Housing Construction is Rolling Over, and it has Much Further to Fall

May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.

The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.

Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2022 Will Home Sales Fall so Fast that Prices Drop too

The plunge in mortgage demand points to such a rapid drop in home sales that prices could easily fall...

...The risk is that homebuilders cut prices, forcing private sellers to follow suit.

Seasonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the increase in the underlying trend is modest.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 May 2022 Yet More Downside Risk to Housing Data, the Floor is Months Away

 Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.

Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.

The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2022 New Home Sales are Set for a Steep Drop, Prices are Vulnerable too

New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.

Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.

Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 May 2022 Whatever Happened to Home Sales in April, Bigger Declines are Coming

Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.

Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.

The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 May 2022 Consumption off to a Flying Start in Q1, Despite the Inflation Shock

The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.

People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.

The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Feb 2022 A Hit to the ISM from Omicron, but not a Knockout Blow

  • The ISM index likely dipped in January, but a big Omicron hit seems to have been averted.
  • The construction recovery has been driven entirely by housing, but the story is changing…
  • …Industrial and commercial construction is rebounding strongly, but housing activity is set to drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Jan 2022 Omicron is Hurting, but the Pain Should Start to Ease in February

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence