Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Trade

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2022 US Monitor The Fed will Hike by 75bp Today; Hints of a Dovish Shift Unlikely

The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.

Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.

Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 July 2022 US Monitor Too Soon for a Less-Hawkish Fed, but the Swerve is Coming in September

More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.

Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.

As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed this Month, but it's Still Strong

Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.

Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.

Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2022 The Core-Core CPI Spike in June is Scary, but Probably Noise

Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.

Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.

The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2022 Small Business Owners are Glum, but Look too for Signs of Easing Inflation

We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...

...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.

Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 July 2022 As Supply Chains Revert to Normal, Margins--and Inflation--have to Fall

Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...

...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.

The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 June 2022 Q2 Rebound in Foreign Trade Likely to be Smaller than we Hoped

The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…

…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.

Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2022 Net Trade is the Biggest Upside Risk to Q2 GDP Growth

The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...

...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.

The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2022 Real-Time Data Signal Continued Strength in Consumer Activity

As Memorial Day distortions fade, we see few signs that consumers are scaling back spending.

The surge in retail and wholesale inventory-building is coming to an end, pushing down imports.

Spiking consumer credit is not necessarily a sign of broad financial distress due to soaring gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, April

Imports drop as the pace of inventory rebuilding slows; trade will add to Q2 GDP growth

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 May 2022 Whatever Happened to Home Sales in April, Bigger Declines are Coming

Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.

Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.

The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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