Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Jan 2022 Consumers are Under Pressure, but the Omicron Hit will Fade Soon

  • Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
  • Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
  • ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Jan 2022 The First Look at January Payrolls is not for the Faint-Hearted

  • The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
  • The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
  • Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Survey, January

In one line: Higher rates beginning to impinge on housing activity?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, January

In one line: Omicron hits the present; expectations little changed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Jan 2022 Omicron is Hurting, but the Pain Should Start to Ease in February

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, December

In one line: Mildly disappointing, but the underlying recovery continues

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

January 2022 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

  • The Fed Is Ignoring Omicron...Expect The First Hike In March, And Perhaps Four In 2022

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, December/Weekly Jobless Claims

In one line: Core PPI inflation has peaked; claims hit by seasonal problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, December

In one line: The peak is close, but the speed of the coming downshift is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Jan 2022 Upside Risks in the December Core CPI, Headline Rate to Peak

  • Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
  • Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
  • Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence