- Our core PCE forecast for January is below the consensus, but only just, and this is not an exact science.
- January headline durable goods orders will be depressed by Boeing, did snow hit the core?
- Consumers’ confidence likely rose again this month, but spending growth nonetheless is set to slow.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The AI boom is visible everywhere except in the GDP numbers, but that is about to change.
- AI spending is more likely to displace spending on opex—people—than other capex.
- New home sales likely were little changed in January, but a weather hit can’t be ruled out.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Business investment last year was hugely flattered by the impact of the CHIPS Act, but that’s now fading.
- Other capex looks to be constrained by high rates and tight credit, especially for small firms.
- Existing home sales are off the floor, but a full recovery is a long way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The January FOMC minutes reinforce Chair Powell’s message: They are going to wait for more data.
- Don’t be deceived by falling February mortgage applications; the seasonals are hopeless.
- An array of indicators points to rising jobless claims, but not just yet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to a sharp slowdown in February payrolls; we expect 125K, with 75K private jobs.
- Spikes in the payroll numbers are common; what matters is whether they are sustained.
- The FOMC minutes will reaffirm the message that policymakers are happy to delay the first easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The closer we look at last week’s data, the less useful it appears to be as a guide to the future.
- The inflation picture is much better than the PPI and CPI data suggest; the Fed can relax...
- ...And the severe weather likely hurt retail sales, manufacturing output and housing starts, temporarily.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
More disappointment, but no change in the trend or the fundamentals
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Severe weather likely hurt January retail sales; a partial rebound is a good bet for February.
- The soft start to the quarter means we now expect 2% growth in real Q1 spending; decent, but a slowdown.
- Core PPI inflation probably is still falling, but margins—trade services—are wild month-to-month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Core retail sales likely rose again in January, getting Q1 consumption off to a decent start.
- Manufacturing output, by contrast, probably tanked, but it probably will recover this month.
- Seaonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the real story is the deterioration in the leading indicators.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
