PM Datanote: U.S. Productivity & Unit Labor Costs, Q3/Weekly Jobless Claims

Unit labor costs consistent with the inflation target, if sustained

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, October

Higher rates are putting the brakes on the recovery in manufacturing.

US

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, October

Ignore, it's useless

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 November 2023 US Monitor Chair Powell Sticks to the Line, but the Data Should Prevent a Dec. Hike

• The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
• Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
• Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. ECI, Q3

Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI

Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.

US

1 November 2023 US Monitor More of the Same from Chair Powell Today; Optionality Still Needed

• The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
• ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
• Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US