Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 22:20U.S.

15 Dec 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but not in a Straight Line

The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Advance Goods Trade 2020

In one line: The warning from jobless claims is very clear; the manufacturing rebound is being offset by weakness in services, thanks to Covid.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 16:19U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

20 Nov 2020 Covid Case Growth is Slowing, but Thanksgiving will Trigger a Spike

The rate of increase of confirmed new U.S. Covid cases per day is slowing, quite quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

3 Nov 2020 Mr. Trump Might be Re-Elected, but the Odds are Against Him

It's entirely possible that Donald Trump will be re-elected today, but it is not very likely. The FiveThirtyEight model--the only one to give Mr. Trump much chance in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, September 2020

In one line: Another solid month for capex, but headline orders pushed up by noise in the aircraft sector.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 14:06U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Oct 2020 01:50U.S.

6 Oct 2020 Covid Threatens Medium-Term GDP Growth but the Story is not All Bad

The steep rise in the number of people unemployed for more than six months attracted a good deal of media attention after the release of Friday's August jobs report, as well...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable goods orders, August 2020

In one line: Solid core behind the soft headlines.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Sep 2020 15:49U.S.

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