Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Oct 2020 Healthcare Services are Emerging as an Inflation Threat

Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

1 Oct 2020 September Payrolls Look a Bit Better After ADP, October Seems Weak

We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

24 Sept 2020 With Fiscal Relief Hopes Fading Q4 GDP Growth is Set to Slow Sharply

Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

22 Sept 2020 Interest in the Housing Market is Peaking, but a Rout is Unlikely

We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

21 Sept 2020 Why won't the Fed Offer Outcome-based Guidance for its QE Program?

The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately"...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

18 Sept 2020 Near-real-time Data Starting to Capture the Hit from Falling Benefits

The near-real-time economic data have been hard to read recently, because of distortions caused by the Labor Day holiday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

17 Sept 2020 The Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Guidance, Raising the Rate Hike Bar

The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

14 Sept 2020 Core Inflation will Rise Further, Core PCE to hit the Target by Year-End?

The 0.4% August core CPI print was close to our expectations, and it likely will look much the same in September and October, driven by the same forces.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

11 Sept 2020 Upside Risk for the August CPI, Used Car Prices are the Key Threat

In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Sept 2020 Rebounding Home Prices Likely will Push CPI Rent Inflation Back up

The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

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