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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...
19th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.
13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...
9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...
2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our...
1st Oct 2020 00:20U.S.
First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...
28th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.
24th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.
We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.
23rd Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.
22nd Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately"...
21st Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The near-real-time economic data have been hard to read recently, because of distortions caused by the Labor Day holiday.
18th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to...
17th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.
It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...
16th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The 0.4% August core CPI print was close to our expectations, and it likely will look much the same in September and October, driven by the same forces.
14th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August...
11th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.
9th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.
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