Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, December 16

Layoffs still very depressed, but people are finding it harder to secure new jobs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

21 December 2023 US Monitor No Sign Yet of a Real Upturn in Layoffs

  • The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
  • …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
  • The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

20 December 2023 US Monitor FOMC Officials' Speeches have a Useful Life of About a Minute

  • FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
  • The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
  • People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

19 December 2023 US Monitor December Homebase Says No Payroll Rollover Yet

  • Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
  • Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
  • Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

18 December 2023 US Monitor How will the Fed's new 2024-to-26 Forecasts be Wrong?

  • The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
  • …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, November

Margins have stopped rising, but yet to start falling, auto dealers excepted.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 December 2023 US Upward Revisions to GDI look more Likely than Cuts to GDP

  • The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
  • ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
  • ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,