US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- The annual revisions to the CPI today are a black box, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.
- Core disinflation will persist, regardless of changes made to the data for last year.
- The Atlanta Fed wage tracker strongly suggests that the spike in January AHE is noise, not signal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The recent past is not always a good guide to the near future, especially in the labor market.
- Rising layoff announcements and weakening hiring intentions signal slower payroll growth in the spring.
- Huge residual seasonality will push down mortgage applications this month, but the trend is rising.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The weakness of the household employment measure probably is not significant…
- …It’s a vastly inferior measure of short-term labor market trends than payrolls—and they’re not great.
- Consumer credit growth likely plunged sharply in December, after November’s inexplicable leap.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Growth in bank lending to businesses is grinding to a halt; the SLOOS survey signals continued weakness.
- The jump in ISM services prices will matter only if it is sustained; brief swings usually are just noise.
- The sharp drop in unit auto sales in January means total retail sales likely were little changed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Head-scratching numbers kill March stone dead, and threaten May too
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Whatever really happened to payrolls in January, leading indicators point to much slower gains in Q2.
- The spike in hourly earnings likely reflects the mis-measurement of hours, not a rebound in the trend.
- The January data have killed any chance of a March Fed easing, but we still expect the first cut in May.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We think total payrolls rose by about 225K in January, comprising 175K private and 50K government.
- Similar gains are likely through the end of Q1, but we expect a meaningful slowing in job gains in Q2.
- Don’t worry about the jump in ISM prices paid; it’s an unreliable guide to CPI core goods prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed wants to see confirmation of its base-case forecast that inflation is headed to target…
- …If the data before March are favorable, the first ratecut will come at that meeting, but no guarantees.
- The ISM manufacturing survey likely will show that the industrial economy is still in a hole.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
