Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.
US
No change to the benign picture.
US
- Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
- But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
- Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
- …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
- Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Still no sign of a rollover in services.
US
- The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
- …It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
- ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Stuck in a rut, with few signs of an improvement ahead.
US
The leap in the Chicago PMI likely is noise, not signal' a modest recovery in home sales lies ahead.
US
- Core PCE inflation is fading rapidly; in recent months it has run only just above 2% on a sequential basis.
- Consumption spending slowed at the start of Q4, but likely is on course to rise at a 2%-plus rate.
- Look for only a modest bounce in the ISM manufacturing index, despite the leap in the Chicago PMI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Net trade unlikely to be a major swing factor in Q4 GDP growth.
US
- The October PCE data likely will confirm that core disinflation continues, but still has a way to go.
- Spending growth appears to have moderated, though one softer month proves nothing.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded last week, though the Thanksgiving seasonals are tricky.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Treat everything you read about holiday spending with great skepticism; reliable data don’t exist.
- Even the official retail sales numbers can’t be trusted until after at least one round of revisions.
- The trade deficit was wild during and immediately after Covid, but it’s much calmer now.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The trend in new home sales is flattening.
US
- Gas and stock prices have an outsized influence on consumers’ confidence indexes, politics matters too.
- The expectations subindexes historically have been a decent guide to real consumption spending.
- Monthly swings in new home sales are mostly noise, but the trend is now flattening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Business equipment investment on course for another decline in Q4; too early to conclude that claims are flattening.
US
A new cycle low, but a modest rebound is coming soon.
US
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
