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6th Dec 2023 20:25USDaily Monitor

  • Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
  • But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
  • Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.

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Keywords for: 8 December 2023 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence