PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, February 2026

Fundamentally weak.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, March 2026

Little to cheer for homebuilders.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production / Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.

16 March 2026 US Monitor Consumers look less resilient going into the energy price squeeze

• January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
• Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
• Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January 2026

The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.

PM Datanote: US Employment, February 2026

What stabilization?.

9 March 2026 US Monitor Labor market is too weak for oil prices to trigger sustained inflation

• Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
• The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
• Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.

2 March 2026 US Monitor The drop in the personal saving rate is unlikely to be revised away

• The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
• The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
• PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, February 2026

Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, February 2026

Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, November / December 2025

The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP Q4 / Spending & Incomes, Q4 / December 2025

Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.

23 February 2026 US Monitor Underlying growth strong in Q4, but likely to underwhelm from here

• Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
• Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
• The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, January 2026

Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Advance Inventories, December 2025

Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 2026

Firmly on hold…for now.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders / Industrial Production

Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, November/December 2025

Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.