PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May 2026

Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade and Inventories, April 2026

Clearer signs of precautionary stockpilling.

1 June 2026 US Monitor NFP preview: the die is weighted toward a downside surprise

• We look for a 50K increase in May payrolls; the most reliable survey indicators have remained weak.
• After two straight above-consensus readings, pay- rolls surprise to the downside two-thirds of the time.
• The weather-related boost to April payrolls will un- wind; expect a drag from strikes and insolvencies too.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, April 2026

Weak sales likely to prompt a further drop in starts.

PM Datanote: US Q1 GDP, April DGO & PCE

Recent increases in consumption look unsustainable.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May 2026

Consistent with renewed labor market weakness.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May 2026

Supply chain disruptions adding to price pressures.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts / Jobless Claims

Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.

26 May 2026 US Monitor GDPNow's projection of 4%+ growth in Q2 looks over the top

• GDPNow’s forecast for 4.3% growth in Q2 is based on too little data to take it seriously.
• We look for growth of 1½%, given the weak underlying trend in consumption and non-tech capex.
• The FOMC is more worried about inflation expectations, but they have no bite in a weak labor market.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, April 2026 Meeting

On hold for now, but the likelihood of easing further ahead in underrated.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, April 2026

No end in sight for the housing slump.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May 2026

Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production / Empire State Survey

Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.

PM Datanote: US PPI, April 2026

Margins are unlikely to remain this high for long.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, April 2026

Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.

18 May 2026 US Monitor Will "supercore" inflation ever return to target-consistent levels?

• Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
• Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
• Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.

PM Datanote: US CPI, April 2026

Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Survey, April 2026

Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April 2026

Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, May 2026

The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.