One big jump is not a trend, but a rising trend is now due
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
An ugly report, but don't call it stagflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- April's slowdown in payrolls looks like real weakness; revisions likely will push the numbers down further.
- Near-zero growth in payrolls lies ahead if the NFIB survey retains its status as the best leading indicator.
- The ISM services survey has joined the growing list of surveys showing that labor demand is weakening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
An uptrend in initial claims is probably still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers starting to feel the pinch.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Striking, but not a national bellwether.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disappointing, but not the end of slowing employment costs inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- A second Trump administration apparently has plans for the Fed; none of them are good; some are wild.
- The March rise in the core PCE deflator matched expectations; muted increases are coming in Q2.
- Strong real consumption growth in Q1 was driven partly by a falling saving rate; expect the reverse in Q2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Housing market activity likely to slow sharply in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Rounding off another weak quarter for equipment investment.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Residential investment bounced in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Last year’s strong consumption was due to rapid real income growth; the saving rate rose.
- Real income growth will be much slower this year, so if the saving rate keeps rising, spending will suffer.
- Consumption might slow gradually, but in the 2001 business cycle recession, growth lurched down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
This housing market recovery will be slow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Encouraging, but too soon to call a real recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
