Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4
Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.
Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.
Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Overstating the gloom, but a downbeat message nonetheless.

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