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We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
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