6 August 2025 US Monitor Why have tariff revenues undershot the White House's expectations?

• China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon. 
• Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
• Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.

5 August 2025 US Monitor The average effective tariff rate is now near 20%; upside risks ahead

• The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
• Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
• The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.

1 August 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending to stagnate as real incomes flatline

• The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
• Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
• We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.

31 July 2025 US Monitor Markets cut September easing odds post-FOMC, but the data will decide

• Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
• 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding. 
• Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak. 

30 July 2025 US Monitor The labor market is limping on; trade deals won't reinvigorate it

• Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
• The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
• Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.

29 July 2025 US Monitor The consensus for a three-digit July payroll print looks complacent 

• We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
• A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
• The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.

25 July 2025 US Monitor. Trade deal progress implies little change in average tariff rates

• Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge. 
• But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports. 
• The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts. 

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

• We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
• …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
• Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

• Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
• …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
• It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

22 July 2025 US Monitor State-level payrolls cast further doubt on a migrant exodus

• BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
• Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
• A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.

18 July 2025 US Monitor Clearer signs of tariff-induced weakness in June retail sales volumes

• The modest gains in nominal retail sales in June were boosted by price rises; sales volumes were stagnant.
• Real consumption likely rose by just 1½% in Q2 and is on track for even slower growth in Q3.   
• The cost of new tariffs has so far been borne entirely by US importers, rather than foreign exporters. 

17 July 2025 US Monitor PPI data show tariffs are inflationary, but only for goods

• PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
• The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
• Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.

16 July 2025 US Monitor Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July

The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...

...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.

CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.  

15 July 2025 US Monitor Retail slowdown likely continued in June, as headline sales flat-lined

• We think headline retail sales were little changed in June, after falling in April and May.
• A small price-driven increase in control sales was likely mostly offset by another fall in auto sales.
• Homebase are roughly consistent with 150K for July private payrolls, but we prefer to trust other indicators.

11 July 2025 US Monitor Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply

• President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
• The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
• We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.

10 July 2025 US Monitor The tariff boost to consumer prices will be undeniable in June's data

• Adobe's Digital Price Index suggests some goods prices rose in June at the fastest pace since 2023.
• Primary rent probably rose at an above-trend pace in June, while airline fares likely stopped falling.
• Residual seasonality continues to blight the services price data; expect a bigger rise in June than in May. 

9 July 2025 US Monitor Only higher reciprocal tariffs on the EU would tangibly lift US inflation

• Exemptions and sector-specific tariffs cover most imports from Japan, leaving the “reciprocal” rate irrelevant.
• Raising the reciprocal rate of EU imports to 50% would boost the US CPI by nearly 1/2%, but a deal is likely.
• The NY Fed survey continues to paint a far more upbeat picture than the other major consumer surveys.

8 July 2025 US Monitor Will the OBBBA unlock a fresh wave of business investment?

• Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
• Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
• Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too. 

3 July 2025 US Monitor Will Mr. Trump blink again during the upcoming tariff spats?

• The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
• But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown. 
• The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession

2 July 2025 US Monitor Labor demand is still weak, despite higher JOLTS openings

• Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
• ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
• Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.