20 April 2026 US Monitor Cooling rent inflation will overwhelm the energy price boost

• Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
• The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
• Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March 2026

A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April 2026

Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.

PM Datanote: US PPI, March 2026

Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, March 2026

Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March 2026

Sales going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, April 2026

Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.

PM Datanote: US CPI, March 2026

Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.

13 April 2026 US Monitor The fading tariff hit will overwhelm oil's impact on core inflation

• A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
• The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
• ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February 2026

Consumption already weak before the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February 2026

Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March 2026

Probably providing a false read on services inflation.

6 April 2026 US Monitor The March labor market data look worse beneath the surface

• The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
• More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
• Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Weekly Jobless Claims

Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March 2026

Core goods inflation unlikely to surge

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales / ADP Employment

Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak

PM Datanote: US JOLTS / Consumer Confidence

No sign of the labor market turning a corner.

30 March 2026 US Monitor The labor market is too weak to embed the Iran war inflation shock

• March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
• The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
• Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, March 2026

Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.