PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, June

A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

30 June 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending is rapidly losing momentum

• Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
• The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
• The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

IMay slump brings sales back to reality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence / Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony

Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

Samuel TombsUS

23 June 2025 US Monitor Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock

• Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
• Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
• We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, June

Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, May

Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, June

 A broken compass.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

16 June 2025 US Monitor May retail sales likely posted their biggest fall in over two years

• We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
• Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
• Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, May

Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

Samuel TombsUS