15 September 2025 US Monitor FOMC too nervous about inflation to endorse fully the market curve

• A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
• Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
• ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, September 6, 2025

Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, August 2025

Labor demand and capex plans still depressed.

8 September 2025 US Monitor Payrolls warrant much looser policy, but 50bp next week is unlikely

• Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
• Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
• The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, August 2025

Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.

2 September 2025 US Monitor Real consumption growth will remain listless through H2

• Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
• ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
• Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July 2025

Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July 2025

Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, July 2025

Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.

PM Datanote: US Chair Powell Jackson Hole Speech, August 2025

A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.

24 August 2025 US Monitor We think a September easing will be the first of many

• Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
• High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
• …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI / Existing Home Sales

The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 16, 2025

Labor market slack is gradually building.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, July 2025

July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July 2025

July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.

August 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2

• UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August 2025

The outlook for homebuilding remains grim. 

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, July 2025

Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.