US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
- Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
- Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Today’s PCE report likely will show a rebound in real consumption and a 0.4% rise in the core deflator.
- Threatened auto tariffs would likely raise the core price level by 0.2-to-0.4percentage points.
- Soaring gold imports imply a much smaller drag on Q1 GDP from net trade than headline data suggest.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
- The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane.
- February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The consumer surveys have deteriorated sharply, but probably overstate the incoming slowdown.
- Air passenger numbers are 4% below their peak, matching the drawdown before the 2001 recession...
- ...But similar declines also were seen in 2005 and 2006, without recession immediately ensuing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Markets pulled back expectations for Fed easing, after the recovery in the composite PMI in March...
- ...But the survey also signalled declining margins in manufacturing, and lower services inflation.
- New home sales likely revived in February after adverse weather, but renewed weakness lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Jobless claims are unlikely to remain low for long; WARN data are consistent with a jump in April.
- Indeed’s measure of job postings now is down 9% since Mr. Trump’s inauguration; uncertainty is biting.
- Regional Fed surveys for March so far suggest manufacturers are absorbing some of the tariff costs.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 50bp this year, but slowdown fears have grown.
- Most members expect tariff inflation to be transitory; attention will soon switch to rising unemployment.
- Homebase data imply private payroll growth slowed to 50K in March, but it likely overstates the downshift.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC forecast likely will envisage easing by 50bp this year, the same as in December.
- The Chair will retain all options, leaving investors unsure if trade war escalation would mean lower rates.
- We continue to expect the FOMC ultimately to ease by 75bp this year, with the first move in June.
Samuel TombsUS
- We are tracking consumption growth of about 1½% in Q1, after February’s retail sales data...
- ...Most real-time indicators look solid, despite lower confidence, so March spending likely will rise too.
- Look today for a 0.6% rise in February manufacturing output, but surveys point to trouble ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% in February, lifting the inflation rate to 2.8%, from 2.6%.
- Markets expect 75bp of FOMC easing in 2025, but most members will keep projecting 50bp next week.
- Forward-looking components of the PPI, however, suggest services inflation will slow further this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- A plunge in airline fares tempered the rise in the core CPI, but the core PCE deflator likely rose by 0.3%.
- Services disinflation will resume; the contribution of rent to core inflation will be 0.5pp lower by end-year...
- ...That will offset the uplift from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, keeping core CPI inflation stable at 3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- January Job postings still above summer 2024 levels; no sudden changes in federal postings…
- …But Indeed new postings are down 7% since the inauguration, and layoff indicators have jumped.
- Small businesses plan to continue squeezing wage rises this year; services inflation will fall further.
Samuel TombsUS
