US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Samuel Tombs
- Pass-through from the tariffs to consumer prices slowed in July, but will re-accelerate in the fall.
- The rebound in airline fares has further to run, but services inflation otherwise looks set to moderate.
- The FOMC likely will ease policy next month, despite more tariff-led inflation, to support the labor market.
- Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
- ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
- Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.
- This year’s consumer slowdown has little to do with worries about taxes, more with trade and tariffs.
- The recent recovery in sentiment reduces recession risk, but the outlook for spending still is dim.
- Rising continuing claims reinforce the idea that the labor market has loosened materially.
- Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
- Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
- Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.
- China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon.
- Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
- Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
- BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
- Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
- A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
- The modest gains in nominal retail sales in June were boosted by price rises; sales volumes were stagnant.
- Real consumption likely rose by just 1½% in Q2 and is on track for even slower growth in Q3.
- The cost of new tariffs has so far been borne entirely by US importers, rather than foreign exporters.
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
- PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
- The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
- Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.
