Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Daily Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

  • The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
  • Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over. 
  • The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

31 May 2024 US Monitor April's core PCE deflator likely rose at the slowest pace since December

  • We expect a 0.23% rise in the core PCE deflator in April, but a rounded 0.3% print would be no great surprise.
  • Real personal consumption probably rose by just 0.1%, given the drop in retail sales in April.
  • Final domestic sales growth was strong in Q1, despite the low GDP headline, but that's about to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

30 May 2024 US Monitor Q1 GDP growth is set to be revised down sharply, to just over 1%

  • Q1 GDP growth will be revised down sharply today, thanks mostly to weaker consumption.
  • Final sales still rose at a decent pace, but momentum is fading, and the labor market will reflect the downshift.
  • Jobless claims probably are trending higher; look out for a hefty drop in pending home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

29 May 2024 US Monitor State and local government construction has boomed; it's over

  • State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
  • ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating. 
  • The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 May 2024 US Monitor Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority

  • Ignore the rise in the composite PMI in May it has been a poor guide to GDP growth since the pandemic... 
  • ...The failure of the employment index to reverse April's plunge adds to signs of slowing payroll growth.
  • We look for a small rise in core capital goods shipments in April, due to a calendar quirk, not an improving trend.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

23 May 2024 US Monitor Markets likely to focus on the PMI employment index, despite its record

  • S&P's employment index has a poor long-term correlation with payrolls, but markets are paying attention now.
  • Leading indicators leave us looking for an above-consensus 230K initial claims print today.
  • "Various" FOMC members signalled willingness to hike in the minutes, but the data has moved on since then.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

22 May 2024 US Monitor Existing home sales probably flat in April, but falls likely further ahead

  • We see existing home sales unchanged last month, but the outlook for the rest of Q2 is dim. 
  • The May rise in Manheim used car prices looks like a blip; sluggish sales will lead to a further margin squeeze.
  • Fed minutes unlikely to change market perceptions about easing timing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

21 May 2024 US Monitor Homebase data imply growth in payrolls slowed further in May

  • Our Homebase model points to an initial estimate of a subpar 150K rise in private payrolls in May.  
  • The Redbook measure of year-over-year growth in retail sales has been remarkably strong lately...
  • ...But it has often overstated the trend in the official retail sales data in the recent past; we think it is again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 May 2024 US Monitor A real revival in the manufacturing sector still looks some way off

  • The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint and a sustained recovery still looks some way off. 
  • April's pick-up in import prices likely will have a near-zero impact on core goods CPI inflation.
  • The failure of housing starts and claims fully to reverse recent adverse shifts suggest interest rates are too high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 May 2024 US Monitor Broad-based disinflation in April preserves Q3 rate cut chances

  • Underlying services inflation slowed in April; momentum in rents and auto insurance prices will fade. 
  • The CPI and PPI data suggest the core PCE deflator rose by 0.23%, the smallest increase since December.
  • April's retail sales report supports the case for a slowdown in consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

15 May 2024 US Monitor No need for a post-PPI overhaul of April CPI and PCE forecasts

  • We are merely nudging up our forecast for the April core CPI to 0.37%, from 0.35%, following the PPI data.
  • Short-term movements in many equivalent PPI and CPI components are weakly correlated.
  • We also look today for a 0.4% rise in total retail sales, consistent with near-zero real consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

14 May 2024 US Monitor April PPI data to show stable margins and slowing services price rises

  • The consensus forecast for a 0.2% rise in the April core PPI is well-grounded, but big surprises are common.
  • Tight credit is weighing heavily on small businesses; we expect another dip in the NFIB survey in April.
  • NY Fed data suggest consumers are becoming more worried about job losses, pointing to higher layoffs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 May 2024 US Monitor The spike in jobless claims is partly noise, but an upward trend is due

  • Jobless claims likely will drop this week, but the sudden spike week is a warning sign of trouble ahead.
  • Consumers’ confidence likely has peaked, but changes to the Michigan survey will overstate any softening.
  • The new method likely will lift the survey's five-to-10-year inflation expectations measure, slightly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 May 2024 US Monitor Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns

  • We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
  • Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
  • Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 May 2024 US Monitor Health insurance CPI inflation likely fell in April and won't flare up again

  • CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
  • Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
  • MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 May 2024 US Monitor The Fed's SLOOS shows monetary policy still is restrictive, and hurting

  • Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
  • The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
  • The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 May 2024 US Monitor Homebase, NFIB signal downside payroll risk, but no guarantees

  • Both the Homebase data and the NFIB survey signal slower job growth in April, but the numbers are noisy.
  • One softer print would not trigger a Fed response, but it would make the May number critical for markets.
  • The ISM services survey likely will provide further reassurance on the underlying inflation outlook.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 May 2024 US Monitor No hawkish Fed pivot, and hints of emerging worried about the labor market

  • Chair Powell batted away talk of a further rate hike, and hinted that labor market fears are emerging.
  • Everything will change if payroll growth slows sharply; that won't happen overnight, but it is coming.
  • Still no signs of a real manufacturing recovery, and inflation risks from the sector are minimal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 May 2024 US Monitor Chair Powell's message will stick to the line: Better inflation data needed

  • The FOMC will likely take a hard line on easing today, despite abundant warnings of a weaker labor market.
  • The disappointing Q1 ECI is not definitive; leading indicators signal downward pressure on wage growth.
  • Ignore the ADP and JOLTS job openings today; the JOLTS quits rate matters far more.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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