10 January 2025 US Monitor Markets are primed to overreact to December payrolls

• Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
• ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
• Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, November

Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

9 January 2025 US Monitor Do profits act as a canary in the coal mine for the wider economy?

• Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
• Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
• Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.

Samuel TombsUS

8 January 2025 US Monitor The post-JOLTS jump in Treasury yields looks overdone

• JOLTS job postings are noisy and usually revised down; Indeed’s data are a better guide to the trend. 
• Muted overall net hiring, and net job losses among very small firms, suggest Fed policy is still too tight. 
• Fade the jump in the ISM services prices index; it is far more volatile than underlying services inflation.

Samuel TombsUS

7 January 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December

• We look for a lethargic 150K in December payrolls, with private jobs increasing by just 120K...
• ...NFIB hiring intentions and Indeed job postings—the only survey indicators worth tracking—are weak.
• Mild weather likely lifted December construction payrolls, but the boost won’t last.

Samuel TombsUS

6 January 2025 US Monitor Manufacturing and construction ring alarm bells for the economy at large

• Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
• Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
• We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.

Samuel TombsUS

3 January 2025 US Monitor Outdated seasonals likely explain the year-end dip in jobless claims

• The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
• The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
• Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.

Samuel TombsUS