US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
- Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
- Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.
- Keeping Mr. Trump, Senators and markets all on-side for three months will be no easy task for Mr. Warsh.
- If he is confirmed, the President might need to use Mr. Miran’s seat on the Board, resulting in no dovish shift.
- Mr. Warsh claims monetary policy alone determines inflation; he’s boxed in if it doesn’t fall this year.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- The Fed will leave rates on hold this week, but three members will vote to ease again...
- ...And key members will place more weight on the further slowdown in payrolls than robust GDP.
- We still expect rising unemployment to spur easing in H1, but major personnel changes now look less likely.
- US import prices rose by three percentage points less than global import prices in the year to October.
- Foreign manufacturers of autos and alcoholic drinks have slashed prices to remain competitive.
- Auto manufacturers will rebuild margins in 2026, but other supply chains will adapt to cut tariff exposure.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
- We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
- ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
- The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.
