US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Datanotes
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.
Services inflation likely to remain in check.
Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
- Tariffs continue to lift core goods prices; passthrough is now about two-fifths complete…
- …But core services inflation remains in check and the weakening labor market will drag it lower.
- Higher goods inflation will be fleeting, while falling services inflation will enable the FOMC to ease.
Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.
- Regional banks are under renewed scrutiny, oil prices have tumbled, and the shutdown is going long...
- ...So markets are starting to see a meaningful chance of a 50bp easing in December.
- But timely data imply the labor market and GDP growth are holding up; 25bp is still more likely.
Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.
- Consumers’ major purchase intentions have fallen sharply, signalling flat spending on durable goods.
- NRF and Redbook data point to a drop in retail sales in September, ending a strong three-month run.
- Most measures of spending on discretionary services have weakened, consistent with a lackluster Q4.
Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.
An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.
- Households have delevered over the last five years and many have fixed-rate mortgages with low rates.
- Reducing the funds rate to 3% next year merely would stabilize the effective mortgage rate.
- The weakness in the ISM surveys in Q3 probably is understating the economy’s underlying momentum.
Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.
Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.
Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.
Turnaround in consumers’ spending built on shaky foundations.
- Spending numbers up to August point to 3% growth in third quarter consumption...
- ...But that pace looks unsustainable, given the myriad headwinds facing households.
- Real after-tax incomes are flatlining, the saving rate is already low, and balance sheets are more fragile.
High prices are holding back sales.
