US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
- We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
- ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
- The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.
Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.
- Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
- ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
- The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.
Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
- Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
- Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
- The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
