US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Weak, but far from definitive.
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
