US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Financial conditions have improved for large firms; the bond refinancing headwind has almost gone...
- ...But the option value of waiting for more information is high; the federal policy outlook is uncertain.
- Small businesses still face tight credit conditions; FDI is costlier; and profits are now being squeezed.
The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.
- A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
- Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
- ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.
Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.
Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.
Labor demand and capex plans still depressed.
- Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
- Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
- The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.
- Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
- ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
- Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
- High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
- …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
- Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
- ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
- Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
