Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
- …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
- It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.
Samuel TombsUS
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
- ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
- We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.
Samuel TombsUS
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Samuel TombsUS
Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Samuel TombsUS
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Samuel TombsUS
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
