PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, January

Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

3 March 2025 US Monitor Consumers will crack soon, but spending will rebound in February

• January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
• A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
• A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 22

Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, February

Finally smelling the coffee.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, February

Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.

Samuel TombsUS

24 February 2025 US Monitor How seriously should we take the PMI's slowdown signal?

• The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
• The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
• Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: PM Datanote: US PPI, January

Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, January

Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Employment, January

Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.

Samuel TombsUS

10 February 2025 US Monitor Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing

• The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
• ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
• A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 1

Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, January

Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, December

Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending. December

A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.

Samuel TombsUS

3 February 2025 US Monitor A growth scare looms, as tariffs hit and the saving rate rebounds

• The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
• Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
• A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, January 25

Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.

Samuel TombsUS